The early Election Day news out of Florida is favorable for Republicans.
According to election results posted online by the Open Source Zone account on X, Republican turnout was nearly double that of Democrats, 19,428 (53.2%) to 9,040 (24.7%).
Republican turnout was also higher than Democrats and Independents combined, with the latter posting 6,989 (19.1%) voters.
The Election Day turnout mirrored early voting in the once-crucial battleground state that has turned solidly red in the era of President Donald Trump, whose Mar-a-Lago estate is located in Palm Beach.
Election Data Guy published a November 1 graphic covering 5,254,007 early and mail votes in Florida.
The graphic assigned 2,129,541 ballots to Republicans, 1,980,166 to Democrats, and 1,144,300 to another category.
Subtracting Democratic ballots from Republican ballots produces the displayed 149,375-vote advantage.
Florida’s voter registration records identify party affiliation, although registration cannot reveal candidate choices.
Its projected Republican vote range spans 48% to 54%, while Democrats range from 45% to 51%.
The analyst also estimates final statewide turnout at 50%, a projection awaiting Election Day results.
Florida’s Senate election features Republican incumbent Ashley Moody against Democratic state Representative Angie Nixon and independent Neil Gillespie.
Governor Ron DeSantis appointed Moody after Marco Rubio became President Donald Trump’s secretary of state.
The winner will complete Rubio’s Senate term, which expires in January 2029.
Moody previously served as Florida attorney general, gaining prominence through conservative legal challenges and public safety initiatives.
🔴 Republicans: 19,428 (53.2%)🔵 Democrats: 9,040 (24.7%)🟡 Independents: 6,989 (19.1%) pic.twitter.com/BW5vUpcsAI
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) November 3, 2026
Republicans enter Election Day with encouraging recent statewide election results and a substantial presidential voting advantage.
Trump carried Florida with approximately 56% in 2024, defeating Kamala Harris by roughly thirteen percentage points.
Republican Senator Rick Scott also secured reelection in 2024, reinforcing the party’s statewide strength.
Florida has not elected a Democratic senator since Bill Nelson won another term in 2012.
The 149,375 registration advantage is therefore encouraging for Republicans.
Federal campaign data showed Moody raising approximately $14.52 million through October 14.
Her campaign reported roughly $13.71 million in spending and $816,355 remaining on that date.
Nixon reported approximately $11.32 million raised, $8.05 million spent, and $3.27 million available.
The broader Senate stakes remain considerable because Republicans currently hold a 53-seat majority.
Democrats must gain a net 4 seats to take control, with Republican Vice President JD Vance breaking ties.
A Moody victory would help Republicans protect an important seat while pursuing victories in more competitive states.
Florida has crossed 5 million early and mail votes (5,254,007), and Republicans hold a 149,375 firewall.
The party mix sits around 40.5% R / 37.7% D / 21.8% other. That’s softer for Republicans than 2024 and 2022 (both 42.9%), with Democrats running above both years… pic.twitter.com/7jjeW7HFJj
— E_DataGuy (@E_DataGuy) November 1, 2026
Republicans are heading into Election Day with formidable national fundraising operations and a major Trump-aligned political spending network backing them.
Federal filings show the Republican National Committee raised approximately $341.5 million during the current cycle through October 14.
The RNC reported approximately $76.2 million remaining in cash, even after extensive transfers, operations, and campaign expenditures.
The National Republican Congressional Committee entered October with approximately $61.3 million available, according to reported September figures.
Associated Press reporting says Trump-aligned groups spent nearly $277 million since early September supporting Republican candidates nationwide.
MAGA Inc., the president’s flagship super PAC, transferred $200 million to No Going Back PAC for campaign activity.
The same reporting placed MAGA Inc.’s remaining cash above $164 million as of October 14, despite major expenditures.
This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.
