Vice President JD Vance has broken his silence after Democrats won both the U.S. House and Senate in Tuesday night’s midterm elections.
In a lengthy post on X, the vice president pointed to voter frustration over the Iran war and the US relationship with Israel as reasons why he believed Democrats were able to seize control of Congress.
“The reason we lost is the war,” Vance began in a lengthy social media post Wednesday.
Vance cited a pollster, who he said listed four reasons why voters who had backed Trump in 2024 said they had abandoned Republicans, one of which was to “End the war” and another calling for the US to “Change our relationship to Israel.”
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was “composition”—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we’re going to shock the world? “No,” he told me. “We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us.”
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1. End the war
2. Focus on cost of living/inflation
3. Put America First
4. Change our relationship to Israel
Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there’s going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I’m open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
— JD Vance (@JDVance) November 4, 2026
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries issued his first statement after Democrats blew out Republicans to take control of the chamber, setting him up to become Speaker in January.
Democrats have won control of the House of Representatives, ending Republican control and dramatically changing the balance of power in Washington.
NBC News projected the Democratic victory after the party captured enough Republican-held districts to surpass the 218 seats required for a majority.
Jeffries told NBC News’ “Meet the Press” that Democrats “haven’t ruled anything in and we haven’t ruled anything out” on potentionally impeaching President Trump for what would be a third time.
The House takeover accompanied an even broader Democratic performance Tuesday, with the party also winning control of the Senate.
Democrats are positioned to enter January with what NBC News said could become their largest House majority in nearly two decades.
Several races remained unresolved Wednesday, meaning the eventual size of the Democratic majority could continue growing as additional ballots are counted.
The result ends two years of unified Republican government and creates divided government for the final half of President Donald Trump’s second term.
Republicans entered the election with only a narrow House majority, leaving Democrats needing relatively modest gains to take control.
Instead, Democrats accumulated victories across battleground districts while also making gains in areas that had recently favored Republicans.
NBC News reported that voter frustration with Trump, affordability, corruption and insufficient congressional oversight contributed to the Democratic gains.
Forty-three percent of voters surveyed in NBC News’ exit poll said expressing opposition to Trump was one reason for their vote.
Another 71% said Congress had not provided enough oversight of Trump, including 41% of Republican voters surveyed.
AP polling similarly found widespread concern about living costs and the direction of the country as voters delivered major Democratic gains.
The House result immediately elevates Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who is positioned to become speaker when the new Congress convenes January 3.
Democratic control will give Jeffries and his caucus authority over committees, hearings, subpoenas and which legislation receives consideration on the House floor.
This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.
