Republicans are projected to hold a Senate seat after a campaign pitting a Trump ally against a democratic socialist challenger.
The outcome preserves a Republican Senate seat and gives the president another victory for his endorsement record.
Sen. Ashley Moody is projected to defeat Florida state Rep. Angie Nixon, according to Decision Desk HQ’s projection.
Governor Ron DeSantis appointed Moody to replace Marco Rubio after he became secretary of state in Trump’s Cabinet.
The projected result allows the former Florida attorney general to serve in the seat she first occupied in January 2025.
Cook Political Report had rated the race solid Republican, although the initial election-night snapshot showed a narrow margin.
At 8:03 p.m. Tuesday, DDHQ reported Moody ahead by 0.7 percentage points with 84.3 percent of the vote reported.
The reported figures were an election-night snapshot, with counting continuing beyond the update accompanying DDHQ’s projected Republican victory.
Moody campaigned supporting President Donald Trump’s immigration agenda, emphasizing law enforcement, public safety, and her background in courtrooms.
Her campaign website highlighted a commitment to standing up for the rule of law, making her legal career a credential.
She framed the contest against Nixon as a choice between safety and chaos, according to Florida television station WPTV’s coverage.
“This election is Freedom vs. Socialism,” Moody wrote on Facebook in August.
“We cannot afford to have the radical Left take over our Free State.”
Trump endorsed Moody and praised her performance representing Florida, linking his support to his own electoral successes in the state.
Trump’s backing reinforced her alignment with his administration while DeSantis’s appointment had already placed her inside Florida’s Republican governing coalition.
Nixon, meanwhile, emerged from a Democratic primary victory and pursued an aggressive campaign against Moody over the Hope Florida controversy.
She called for Moody to be “locked up and punished in jail” over allegations concerning money directed to the charity.
The accusations involved Moody’s actions while serving as attorney general and questions about her role in approving a settlement agreement.
CBS News Miami reported that a sealed grand jury report described Moody’s awareness of plans to divert the payment.
According to that account, she authorized former chief deputy attorney general John Guard to sign the agreement involved.
The allegation became a line of attack for Nixon, contrasting with Moody’s campaign emphasis on legal experience and public safety.
The projected Republican win means Nixon’s effort to turn that controversy into a statewide challenge fell short in this contest.
Moody brought a legal résumé to the race, including service as a federal prosecutor, circuit judge, and Florida’s attorney general.
Born and raised in Plant City, she is a fifth-generation Floridian, according to the biography published by her Senate office.
She earned bachelor’s and master’s degrees in accounting at the University of Florida and completed her law degree there.
She later earned a Master of Laws in international law from Stetson University College of Law, adding another legal qualification.
BREAKING: Polymarket projects Republican Ashley Moody has won Florida’s U.S. Senate race, retaining the Senate seat previously held by Marco Rubio. https://t.co/mQR6kjLeL2
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) November 4, 2026
Her career began at Holland & Knight, where she practiced commercial litigation and helped domestic violence victims obtain protection.
She subsequently joined the United States Attorney’s Office, prosecuting cases involving drugs, firearms, and fraud before seeking a judicial position.
In 2006, at age 31, Moody won election to the Thirteenth Judicial Circuit in Hillsborough County, becoming Florida’s youngest judge.
Congressional records list her judicial service from 2007 through 2017, followed by service as attorney general from 2019 through 2025.
Her Senate oath followed on January 21, 2025, completing the transition prompted by Rubio’s departure for the Trump administration.
Her campaign biography says she and her husband, Justin, a career law enforcement officer, have two sons, Brandon and Connor.
That personal and professional background supplied the foundation for a campaign built around policing, immigration enforcement, and conservative priorities.
This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.
